Key points

  • Paul Tudor Jones told CNBC's Squawk Box on October 13th, 2026, that 2027 is "going to be really, really challenging for the stock market."
  • He still sees room for a rally into year-end, but says next year carries "the most negative flow picture for the U.S. stock market that we've had, say, since 2002."
  • Form 4 filings show SpaceX (SPCX) chief operating officer Gwynne Shotwell sold $52.5 million of stock on September 22nd, 2026, three months after the listing.

Paul Tudor Jones, founder and chief investment officer of Tudor Investment Corporation, said the stock market may still have room to run into the end of 2026 but that 2027 could bring the heaviest supply of new shares in a quarter of a century. "We are literally exactly like 1999 in the sense that we have kind of a two-speed economy," he told CNBC's Squawk Box on October 13th, 2026, pointing to the divide between companies benefiting from artificial intelligence and those being left behind.

Near term he is constructive. Midterm-election years have tended to bottom around late October or early November and strengthen into the fourth quarter, and he said investor positioning leaves room for that pattern to repeat this year.

The supply problem

Jones's concern for 2027 is supply and demand for shares. Since 2009, corporate buybacks and mergers have removed stock from the market and supported prices through most of the current four-year bull run. He said that tide is now turning as initial public offerings, secondary offerings and post-listing share unlocks add supply, with large offerings expected from Anthropic and OpenAI on top of the SpaceX listing already completed.

"You had all this issuance, all these IPOs in '98 and '99, and really 2000, 2001, 2002," he said. "Those were the easiest years to be short because you kept having these unlocks that just kept adding supply to the market." His own stance on next year was blunt: "I'll be short the whole year," he said. "There's little value."

He also warned that strong results alone may not be enough. "You can have these spectacular earnings, spectacular revenue streams, great projections," he said. "But if, all of a sudden, we wake up one day and a model has gone rogue or bad actors used it maliciously, you've got a donut."

The insider angle

SpaceX is the listing Jones named, and its Form 4 record already shows the unlock he describes. Chief operating officer Gwynne Shotwell sold 342,170 shares across five fills on September 22nd, 2026, at $151.15 to $154.72, for $52,546,493, after exercising options priced between $8.40 and $19.40. There is no open-market purchase by any SpaceX insider in the record InsiderBuying.com holds.

Market reaction

SPCX closed at $152.16 on October 14th, 2026, 5.5% below its first close of $160.95 on June 12th, 2026, and 24.6% below the $201.80 high it has set since listing. The company is valued at about $2.0 trillion, and 40 analyst price targets in our record average $226.75. CNBC reported that Jones spoke as investors weigh higher bond yields and a more hawkish Federal Reserve against a bull market in its fourth year.

What to watch

The markers Jones set are the IPO calendar for Anthropic and OpenAI, the pace of buybacks in third-quarter results, and every post-listing unlock. Insider sales at the newly listed names reach Form 4 within two business days, and Insider Access members follow them as they are filed. Track real-time insider activity at SpaceX (SPCX) and 9,000+ companies → insiderbuying.com/companies/SPCX

Informational only, not investment advice.